CHANGES TO THE GENERATION MIX

Last Tuesday saw a new record set for wind powered generation with NEM wide production reaching 5,899MW late in the afternoon. Wind made up 20% of the total generation at the time and on occasion peaked to 26% of NEM wide generation. As seen from my market commentary in recent weeks we have seen large fluctuations in available generation from intermittent sources such as wind and solar. In the past 6 months although peak wind production reached 26% it has also reached a low of just 2%. As more wind farms come online and are built across different regions, we will see more diversification of output. Currently Victoria leads the pack with the most wind generation followed by NSW and SA with TAS and QLD only contributing small amounts of wind generation.

In line with the increase in renewable generation, last year operational demand increased by 350MW primarily driven by cooler Q2 conditions and the opening up of the economy following the Covid lockdowns the previous year. LNG export prices have also increased as the world economy improved, this led to an increase demand in QLD for electricity in the gas production value chain. Overall wind and solar generation have reached record highs peaking at 57% market share in April.

Although the average operational demand has grown, the increased penetration of roof top PV reduced demand by 298MW between 10:00 and 14:30. Generation from intermittent sources such as wind and solar reached a record 7,368MW in the second quarter, 457MW more than the same quarter a year ago.

Coal fired generation dropped for a few reasons over the quarter, initially coal generation was being offset by renewable generation then interruptions in coal supply and unit failure lowered production.

The largest contributors to these reductions where Victoria’s Yallourn power station where flooding in the neighbouring mine reduced the output and a catastrophic failure at Queensland’s Callide C4. Following the failure of Callide C4, network protection took out a significant amount of coal units over the next couple of hours while the network was reinstated to isolate Callide power station. As a precaution the undamaged coal fired units at Callide remained offline for the following weeks while the cause of the initial failure was investigated.

With low and sometimes negative prices during the day due to high levels of rooftop PV, large scale solar and wind, the remaining generators tried to extract value from the morning and evening peaks. Historically this would have been taken up by coal fired generation but in Q2 gas powered generation (GPG) operated more due to the scarcity of coal fired units.

A record amount of 57% renewable generation occurred at 11:30 on 11th April, this was made be solar, roof top PV, hydro, and biomass, and was 1% more than the previous record seen in October 2020.

Although renewable generation has been high, restrictions on the network are limiting further output. Curtailment occurred for about 4% of semi-scheduled intermittent generation which was higher than Q1 primarily due to higher negative prices. Intermittent generation now their output at times of negative pricing to limit their exposure to the market. We also see an increase in the amount of curtailment resulting from network congestion and network constraints. In regions with very high levels of renewable penetration such as South Australia saw intermittent generation curtailed to manage AEMOs System strength concerns.

MINING EXEC JOINS RENEWABLE AGENCY

Scott Morrison and his Minister for Energy and Emissions Reduction continue to appoint mining executives to the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA). The next to be appointed is Stephen McIntosh from Rio Tinto. Fellow board member John Hirjee is also a former Rio Tinto executive.

As Rio Tinto is one of Australia’s largest coal producers, opponents to the appointments find it hard to understand how these executives can add value to the ARENA board.

However, Minister Angus Taylor said “that the addition of McIntosh would bring to the ARENA board experience in the production of the materials used in clean energy technologies like electric vehicles and battery storage”.

Taylor went on to say “Mr McIntosh is a former Rio Tinto Group Executive with experience in green metals, wind, solar and batteries. He has also worked across hydrogen and carbon capture technologies during his time with the company.”

Darren Miller, the CEO of ARENA, has had his contract extended for another three-year term and will work with other senior staff and board members to provide funding into the development of new clean energy technologies.

Questions have been raised about if ARENA is distributing its funding fairly with Rio Tinto awarded funding for a feasibility study into the use of Hydrogen at its Yarwun alumina refinery and the funding of the Kidston pumped Hydro project where renewable projects in the region were rejected.

BILLION DOLLAR GREEN ENERGY HUB

Spark Infrastructure, the partial owner of SA Power Networks, Transgrid, Powercor, CitiPower and the Bomen Solar farms is looking at developing a 2.5GW renewable energy hub in the middle of the South West Renewable Energy Zone (REZ) in NSW.

The Dinawan Energy Hub is strategically situated along the route of the planned interconnector between South Australia and NSW. The EnergyConnect project will be a 330KV interconnector running between Wagga Wagga and Robertstown in South Australia and will open up more than $20B of new renewables projects.

The Dinawan Energy Hub will be located halfway between Coleambally and Jerilderie and due to its location will support the existing network and the Humelink and Karanglink interconnectors.

The hub is expected to be completed by 2025 and is expected to include 1GW of wind, solar and battery storage. The $1.5B project will be undertaken in stages with the first stage expected to

commence construction in 2024.

Spark Infrastructure have completed the project identification stage of the development and now will undertake engineering studies and community consultation. The final investment decision is expected in 2024.

In some ways the Dinawan Energy Hub will compete with the NSW government’s plans to develop the REZ however Spark infrastructure believe the REZ and the energy hub can be developed together.

Spark Infrastructure is also in the news with a potential takeover bid for the multi-billion-dollar business.

Leading global investors including Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR) and Ontario Teachers’ Pension fund have showed interest in investing in renewable energy and infrastructure projects in Australia.

It is understood these investors are looking at investing $5B to take over Spark Infrastructure.

If the takeover goes to plan, KKR and Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan may add the Australian market to their target markets having recently bought a stake in Finland’s largest electricity distributor. KKR is also in the process of buying John Laing, a developer with interest in renewables assets in Australia.

BIGGER BATTERIES AND LARGER STORAGE

Back in 2017 following the black out of South Australia, the Tesla big battery was announced as the largest lithium-ion battery in the world. Weighing in at 100MW/150MWh the unit was big and provided enough storage to get regions through short duration period of high price of low availability. At the time, most people in Australia thought of batteries as a small segment of the industry and did not predict batteries to make any meaningful impact on the market for the next 10 to 20 years.

The Tesla big battery has now grown to 150MW/194MWh with the addition of extra batteries but has lost its title as the world’s largest and is likely to lose the title as Australia’s largest battery with Neon installing a 300MW/450MWh big battery near Geelong.

Now even Australia’s newest largest battery is about to be pushed off the top step as large scale wind and solar projects are installing larger, high-capacity batteries.

Most large-scale batteries in Australia have not been operating as storage devices, instead offering a service to “time shift” generation out of intermittent generation such as solar or wind to the time where the energy is required and returns better prices. The big batteries have predominantly been operating in the frequency market where they deliver network services such as frequency control ancillary services and synthetic inertia. To provide the network service the batteries operate for short sharp periods and as a result do not require large amounts of storage duration. As the competition in the network services segment of the industry increases the price for these services has reduced. Battery developers are now focusing on “time shifting” to provide better return for their projects rather than being exposed to low solar hour prices.

As coal fired generators retire the “duck curve” will deepen opening more opportunities for batteries to time shift the wind and solar generation into the evening peaks.  Developers are now looking for large duration storage to optimise their returns over the evening peaks. It now appears a 4-hour storage duration is the norm.

In recent weeks we have seen the large market players with significant thermal generation installed entering the battery developer market. Energy Australia is planning a 350MW big battery with four-hour storage at Yallourn.  AGL is constructing a 250MW big battery with four-hour storage at its Torrens Island site in South Australia which has announced the mothballing of its gas units. AGL also plans to replicate the 250MW battery at its Loy Yang coal site in Victoria. At Eraring, Origin is planning to install a big battery to offset generation when the coal fired power station closes.

The question is, if “time shifting” occurs, the times when the battery charges will likely raise spot prices as demand increases and the evening peak prices should drop. To make money battery operators will need to arbitrage the charging cost with the price they receive when they discharge. With the increased penetration of wind and solar generation into the generation mix the spot prices during the solar hours are likely to fall further however with many large-scale battery developers still heavily reliant on coal fired generation the optimisation of their exist portfolio will be interesting to see.

PIPELINE RUNS DRY FOR WIND

On Friday BloombergNEF released its latest Global Wind Market Outlook. It showed wind farm development has slowed in Australia with no wind farm project reaching financial close to date in 2021.

Delays in the projects are resulting as investors are more cautious to put money into projects that could be exposed to lower spot prices and potentially constrained off due to the continuing network challenges. In the previous your Covid-19 impacted our lives and slowed developments. Last year only 449MW of wind projects reached financial close, significantly lower than the boom year of 2018 when 2,500MW reached financial close.

Based on AEMO data, there is substantial pipeline of wind projects under construction across the NEM with 3,600MW being built. Many of these projects are experiencing delays due to the approval of connection agreements in some cases requiring additional infrastructure to be added.

BloombergNEF analysis predicts up to 700MW of generation could be delayed and not see first generation until 2023. It is understood we may see some progress in wind farm development before the year is out, with the MacIntyre wind farm and the Kaban Wind farm both approved by AEMO, the next barrier is financial close.

As system strength increases across the NEM due to greater interconnection and more stringent connection requirements the flow in the pipeline will increase. With the announcement of Project EnergyConnect which will link between South Australia and NSW it is expected to lead to more than $5B in new projects.

NSW is adding new Renewable Energy Zones (REZ), and these REZs are expected to allow up to $30B of new projects, however development has stagnated as developers wait for the REZ roll out.

While lower electricity prices are good for end users, the low-price environment is making investors nervous resulting in banking a project hard to achieve. With the power purchase agreement (PPA) market seeing more interest from large companies looking to reduce their carbon footprint we will continue to see deals being done and projects starting to be built through the remainder of 2021, 2022 and beyond.

Edge News – June 2021 Newsletter

As we head into a new financial year consider the usual activities at this time of year. Consumers on financial year contracts would (should!) be recontracted by now, leading to a temporary decrease in demand for forward contracts from a consumer perspective. Wholesale contract traders will be squaring away positions for financial year end, so we should expect some profit taking from those in long positions and vice versa!

One thing we all know with contracting energy… timing is everything!  Edge2020 clients provide tips on how to contract better.

We’ve been working with some amazing clients these past couple of months, and we highlight one in particular who was an absolute pleasure to work with (and who we helped save nearly half a million dollars).

We also review Callide – what happened and what now?

WILL A “SUN TAX” SLOW DOWN ROOFTOP INSTALLATIONS?

Look around the suburbs and you will see rooftop solar PV installations have taken off. But Australia’s love of using the sun to power our homes has led to increased pressure being put on the distribution network. The high share of intermittent generation on the network, such as rooftop PV, has seen network operators warn consumers of an increased risk of congestion on the grid and possible blackouts. The increase congestion and the increase risk of blackout has led to the call for more market reform.

As part of ARENA’s Distributed Energy Integration Program, the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) have rolled out their next phase of market reform in response to the increase congestion on the distribution network. The proposed changes include:

  • Changing distribution power networks’ existing incentives to provide services that help people send power back into the grid
  • Officially recognising energy export as a service to the power system.
  • Allowing power networks to develop new tariff options including two-way pricing.
  • Flexible pricing solutions at the network level.

The latest raft of reforms are designed to allow more solar and new tech energy into the grid. But Solar advocates have focused on the rule change that will allow distributors to charge solar households to export power.

Solar advocates have labelled the new legislation a “Sun tax” and have called upon state energy Ministers to “protect solar owners from this discriminatory charge’’.  The proposed reform, released for consultation last week, has been labelled a ‘‘sun tax’’ by community interest group Solar Citizens. Solar Citizens also called on state energy Ministers to ‘‘protect solar owners from this discriminatory charge”. It must be highlighted that this legislation is not a tax, and the new energy rule will include extra safeguards to ensure existing and new solar customers – and non-solar customers – are protected. The proposal does not mandate default charges for exporting power.

Market participants, including the distribution companies, agree the proposed reforms will allow more rooftop solar systems and batteries. This reform will also allow the smarter use of the network with distributed energy resources (DER) linking together to optimise the grid. This reform will enable more DER and how DER is managed. Currently as high levels of rooftop solar PV generation increase distribution companies restrict the power exported to prevent voltage spikes, frequency changes and in some cases blackouts.

Modelling by the AEMC shows a typical household with a roof top PV could lose out on $70 each year if this market reform goes through. The AEMC modelling also showed the reforms could impact around 20% of households. 80% of households will be no worse off and many may be better off by $15 as they would not be paying for the higher cost of distribution associated with building a grid to accommodate excess solar energy.

The AEMC have highlighted that these reforms are fairer as late adopters of rooftop PV are not disadvantaged with the current “first in, best dressed” structure.  AEMC CEO Ben Barr emphasised that the proposal would not mean that every kilowatt of energy exported into the grid would be charged, he believes distributors to offer a variety of options for solar households, which could include free exports up to a certain limit.

Energy Consumers Australia, which represents retail energy users, said the proposed reform was only the first step in a process that needed to focus on talking to consumers and putting their needs first.

EDGE IS HELPING BUSINESSES TO STEP UP THEIR CLIMATE EFFORTS

The world is changing……………………. you only had to look out the window this week, to see the impacts of this.

No matter how you think it is occurring or who you think is contributing to it, climate change is real.

Over the last decade it has been more evident that Australia is being impacted by climate change. We have seen higher temperatures, worsening droughts and most recently parts of Australia have been impacted by the worst floods in a decade.

Australia has always been affected by extremes in the weather, but science shows the impact and regularity is increasing.

At Edge part of our role is to advise our clients on how to best manage risk. This is not always financial risk as most people would assume but, indirectly climate risk. This is the biggest risk many companies are facing, and this directly relates to financial risk.

Investors are starting to push companies to align their operations towards emission reduction targets and the use of sustainable practices. Many companies across Australia are pledging to reduce emissions to ‘‘net zero’’ by 2050 however, many do not have a clear strategy to reach this target.

Edge has and is currently assisting our clients with the development of low carbon business models.

When investors are weighing up the performance of a company, they are now allocating more weighting to how the company manages it sustainability.

Edge works with a range of clients including, some of the largest mining and utility companies worldwide and over the last couple of years we have developed strategies to decarbonise their businesses.

The procurement of renewable energy is just one way in which Edge is assisting clients.

We have developed sophisticated mechanisms to provide the client with access to:

  • renewable energy
  • environmental certificates
  • emission offsets

and……………..we are still able to manage the price risk and uncertainty in the energy market.

IS SOLAR POINTING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION?

 

Are we installing rooftop solar panels to produce the best outcome for our households?

Traditionally solar panels including residential, commercial and industrial scale have been orientated to catch the sun to produce as much solar energy as possible. This has resulted in solar panels being installed facing north in the southern hemisphere, to face the equator. The north facing panels would then produce the most energy from the sun when it passes the zenith in the middle of the day. This results in the most amount of energy being produced, usually when a majority of households are not using electricity, resulting in excess energy being exported or stored in batteries. The returns from the export credits are lower than the cost of electricity during the peak times of use and the capital cost of batteries, which are currently high.

We are all aware, the export of excess solar energy during the middle of the day is causing issues for the National Energy Market (NEM) and can result in negative spot prices during these times. There are currently 20% of households with rooftop solar installed and this is expected to grow in the coming years. The issue of excess solar energy being exported will worsen over time.

The University of South Australia (UniSA) is comparing rooftop solar installations compared to the usage patterns of consumers. UniSA see “the real challenge now facing the solar industry is finding ways to balance production and consumption by maximising self-consumption for the solar panel owner”. This has led to researchers exploring the orientation of rooftop solar panels, rather than to match the times of best generation but to meet patterns of consumption. Matching consumption will result in a reduction in overall energy generation but exports will be minimised.

The UniSA research found “by orienting panels in different directions rather than just facing the equator, it’s possible to minimise the shortfall between load and generation for a community precinct…This benefits the end-user by decreasing the amount of electricity required to be imported, and the stability of the grid by decreasing the amount of variability between peak and low loads.” The research found it was better to face the panels North West to match the afternoon loads. To optimise for the morning and afternoon consumption, by placing panels North East and North West, the load in the middle of the day was still met, but a greater proportion of the morning and afternoon load was also delivered from the solar panels.

What is the spot market and the spot price?

Understanding the spot market and spot prices is fundamental to understanding how much you ultimately pay for electricity.

The National Electricity Market (NEM) operates as a ‘spot market’.  This means that supply and demand are matched instantaneously, and generators are paid a spot price for the energy they generate in any given period.

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) manages the spot market, balancing supply and demand in real time. With the safe delivery of energy the priority, AEMO controls a number of physical aspects of the market which ultimately impacts which generators are dispatched, and what spot price is achieved.

AEMO provides the market information regarding how much demand is expected. Generators compete to supply this energy by providing a bid stack to AEMO that ultimately tells the market operator how much energy they are prepared to generate for a given price. AEMO aggregates all the bid stacks from cheapest to most expensive, manages the physical requirements of the system (which stands to impact some generation with constraints, ancillary services, interconnector flows, etc.), and sets the spot price in a region at the lowest price where actual demand intersects the relevant bid stack. . All supply at and below this level is required to generate and will be paid the spot price.

Supply and demand is physically managed by AEMO varying the market in 5-minute dispatch intervals. For the purpose of financially settling the spot market, it is done in 30-minute trading intervals (an average of the six 5-minute dispatch intervals). This means the spot market currently operates in a way that physical dispatch and financial settlement are determined over different timeframes. The market was designed in this manner to incentivise slow ramping thermal generators and large users to benefit from changes to load up to 25 minutes after the price signal has been sent.

The spot market and the setting of spot prices is highly complex and governed by stringent rules for both bidding and dispatch processes (all of which go well beyond the high-level principles outlined in this article). Despite this, the dispatch and settlement timing mismatch has led to disorderly bidding practices whereby generators have been accused of ‘gaming’ the market. The Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) determined that in the long-term, the pricing anomaly may lead to inappropriate investment and higher prices for consumers.

Consequently, in a move to further enhance the market, from 01 July 2021 the market will start to move to 5-minute spot pricing. This means dispatch and financial settlement will be aligned, disorderly bidding will be managed, and fast response technologies such as batteries will be rewarded.