Good news regarding the 2023 budget, but does everything that glimmers gold?

A man and woman at a computer

In contrast to last year’s budget in October 2022 which forecasted a deficit $36.9bn for this financial year Hon Dr Jim Chalmers MP announced a surplus of $4bn in the 2023 Federal Budget, which is the first in 15 years.

Under a tightly controlled budget, the industry could be forgiven for worrying that there may have been unexpected shocks. Especially with the closure of Liddell, Baywater trip and extended outages. However, it was good news! But is everything that glimmers actually gold?

Little was mentioned in the 2023 budget regarding the huge windfalls the treasury gained from the commodity industry and that fact that 20 per cent of the surplus came from increased commodity prices.

Overall, the budget was scarce on Energy for large business, with it mainly focusing on infrastructure for Electric Cars, cost of living relief for residential and small businesses and the creation of a National Net Zero Authority.

There was a mention of the new Hydrogen head start program, giving $2bn to the scheme and more investment in green industry, which was expected. And interestingly a mention of the Capacity Investment Scheme “unlocking over $10 billion of investment in firmed-up renewable energy projects up and down the east coast” which we hope to hear more about.

The Gas and Coal caps were mentioned but there has been no talk of the Coal Cap either being extended or removed when it expires in December 2024.

Undoubtably in the commodity space the biggest losers yesterday were the Gas companies, due to the extension of the Gas cap at $12/GJ into 2025, increased taxes due to the extraordinary market conditions, and the Petroleum Rent Resource Tax.

The budget is expected to be picked apart, but overall, there are no major changes to the status quo, and the government is cautious about throwing around too much cash in the face of slowing economic growth.

This is a summary article from Edge2020 – read the original article.

The team Edge Utilities are passionate about renewables and sustainability, we are energy brokers with an eye on the planet. We are committed to helping councils and business communities reach their net zero goals through renewable power purchasing agreements (PPAs) and smart portfolio management.
To discuss options and plans for your community contact us at save@edgeutilities.com.au  or call us on 1800 334 336 to discuss. 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Warning

plant in landscape suffering drought

The catastrophic impact caused by rising greenhouse gases

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s 6th Assessment Report (AR6) has shocked the scientific world and beyond. More than 250 climate scientists worked on this eight-year assessment, which drew an alarming conclusion about the catastrophic impact caused by rising greenhouse gases.

The report highlights that we are already experiencing the effects of 1.1 degrees Celsius warming, including summer arctic ice coverage, ocean acidification, and rising carbon dioxide levels. Moreover, it discusses the irreversible effects that can occur at as low as a 1.5-degree overshoot, including species extinction and loss of life.

The UN’s Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, has urged nations to abandon the 2050 net-zero target for stronger 2040 packs while calling for developed nations to phase out coal by 2030 and block new oil or gas extraction. This, he believes, could hold us at the 1.5-degree warming cap. The upcoming COP28 in the UAE in November and December will be a true test of the global commitment to tackling climate change. However, with the chair being the CEO of the 12th largest oil business, there are concerns about softening approaches.

The AR6 shows that we are close to the point of no return and that the impacts of climate change require immediate action.

This is a summary article from Edge2020 – read the original article.

The team Edge Utilities are passionate about renewables and sustainability, we are energy brokers with an eye on the planet. We are committed to helping councils and business communities reach their net zero goals through renewable power purchasing agreements (PPAs) and smart portfolio management.
To discuss options and plans for your community contact us at save@edgeutilities.com.au  or call us on 1800 334 336 to discuss. 

 

ORIGIN STILL IN THE RED

More bad news for electricity retailers with Origin Energy announcing an impairment of $1.6B after further writing down the value of its generation assets and reducing the value of its renewable energy contracts.

In a statement, Origin said the write downs were a result of falling wholesale prices, mostly driven by the influx of new wind and solar projects. High gas prices also reduced the returns from their fleet of gas-powered generation.

Origin owns the largest coal fired generation unit in the NEM, so the market pressures weighed heavily on the balance sheet. Origins large exposure to the non-renewable segment of the market through its Eraring coal fired power station which resulted in a $583M post-tax impairment. This comes because of Origin’s assumption of a lower outlook for wholesale electricity prices driven by new supply expected to come online, including both renewable and dispatchable capacity, impacting the valuation of the generation fleet, particularly Eraring Power Station.

Eraring is expected to be the cause of much of the impairment, but the gas-powered generation (GPG) units did not fair much better. The GPG were affected due to the increased cost of gas and the decrease in the spot and contract electricity market price.

Strategically Origin has chosen to source renewable energy through PPA rather than build physical generation so are not exposed to the physical renewable market. Origin was an early mover in the renewable PPA space so the PPA’s on their books are very expensive compared to what the market offers are today. This has resulted in Origin writing down some of the value of these existing PPAs.

Origin says it will write down $995M in value of goodwill for these renewable PPA’s and the gas contracts that are out of the money. Origin expects the spot market price to be up to $20/MWh below where they previously anticipated the price to be.

Origin expect their FY2022 profits to be lower than expected at $450- 600M which will again be largely supported by the LNG export part of the business.

On a positive front, Origin expects the market to recover in FY2023 where earnings are expected to increase by $150-250M on the back of a material rebound in energy market earnings.