When will businesses see the recent reduction in wholesale electricity prices?

Although wholesale electricity prices have reduced in recent months, it is unlikely that households and businesses will see these benefits in their electricity bills until 2024.

In late December the Federal government stepped into the energy market and intervened, placing a price cap on wholesale gas and the price of coal, essentially disconnecting the domestic energy market from the international energy market. Moreover, the Federal treasury analysed the wholesale electricity market in November 2022, comparing it with the prices we saw in December. After Federal intervention the price caps on coal and gas have dropped prices in QLD by 44% and 38% for NSW.

Following these caps being put in place, the domestic electricity market corrected and both spot and futures contracts dropped to match an underlying cost of production for electricity based on these new capped fuel prices.

However, does this mean electricity bills are going to drop a similar amount? Well, the bad news is no. Retail bills are normally locked in well in advance so many large users have locked in pricing for 2023. The underlying energy costs are only part of the retail bill as other costs include transmission, distribution and AEMO charges which unfortunately have not decreased and have the potential to increase as the market evolves.

While the underlying cost of electricity will drop with more renewable energy entering the market, the other costs on the electricity bills will now represent a higher proportion and are likely to increase.

Renewable energy requires more transmission lines to connect the generators to the grid, they require specialised services to maintain the security of the grid and will also require a higher cost generation or storage to provide firming for around the clock supply.

Edge Utilities offer market leading services for business and strata energy users. We help you navigate the ever-changing energy landscape, focus on renewables and save on your power bills through our Edge Utilities Power Portfolio (https://edgeutilities.com.au/edge-utilities-power-portfolio/). Reach out, we would love to assist you: info@edge2020.com.au or call on:1800 334 336

ORIGIN STILL IN THE RED

More bad news for electricity retailers with Origin Energy announcing an impairment of $1.6B after further writing down the value of its generation assets and reducing the value of its renewable energy contracts.

In a statement, Origin said the write downs were a result of falling wholesale prices, mostly driven by the influx of new wind and solar projects. High gas prices also reduced the returns from their fleet of gas-powered generation.

Origin owns the largest coal fired generation unit in the NEM, so the market pressures weighed heavily on the balance sheet. Origins large exposure to the non-renewable segment of the market through its Eraring coal fired power station which resulted in a $583M post-tax impairment. This comes because of Origin’s assumption of a lower outlook for wholesale electricity prices driven by new supply expected to come online, including both renewable and dispatchable capacity, impacting the valuation of the generation fleet, particularly Eraring Power Station.

Eraring is expected to be the cause of much of the impairment, but the gas-powered generation (GPG) units did not fair much better. The GPG were affected due to the increased cost of gas and the decrease in the spot and contract electricity market price.

Strategically Origin has chosen to source renewable energy through PPA rather than build physical generation so are not exposed to the physical renewable market. Origin was an early mover in the renewable PPA space so the PPA’s on their books are very expensive compared to what the market offers are today. This has resulted in Origin writing down some of the value of these existing PPAs.

Origin says it will write down $995M in value of goodwill for these renewable PPA’s and the gas contracts that are out of the money. Origin expects the spot market price to be up to $20/MWh below where they previously anticipated the price to be.

Origin expect their FY2022 profits to be lower than expected at $450- 600M which will again be largely supported by the LNG export part of the business.

On a positive front, Origin expects the market to recover in FY2023 where earnings are expected to increase by $150-250M on the back of a material rebound in energy market earnings.

NEM BACK IN BLACK

On Wednesday last week the Energy Security Board (ESB) released a statement outlining that they had finalised advice on the redesign of the national electricity market (NEM) and handed the report to the Energy National Cabinet Reform Committee. This advice comes from a 2019 request to redesign the market to support the orderly transition to a modern energy system that allowed a rapid increase in the growth of large and small scale renewable energy.

Details of the advice is not publicly available but wording in the media release indicates that coal fired generation will play a key role in the transition. The statement outlines that there must be a coordination of the exit of aging coal fueled generation to maximise the opportunities and minimise risks associated with the transition to deliver affordable, smart, and clean energy.

The ESB consulted widely with industry stakeholders, conChanges to the generation mixsumer bodies, academics, government bodies and interested parties over the last two years. An options paper was released in April and the final advice is expected to closely reflect the options discussed.

Key areas we expect to be tackled in the final redesign advice is preparing for the older coal fired generation retirement, backing up power system security, unlocking benefits and opening the grid to cheaper large-scale renewables.

In preparing for the retirement of the older coal fired generation, the ESB want to give an incentive for the right mix of resources including renewables and non-renewable generation. This was to restore confidence in consumers that energy will be available when required and the mix will include intermittent generation like wind and solar as well as firm dispatchable generation like gas.

To tackle the need for a more secure power system, the ESB will require different ancillary services like inertia, voltage, and frequency control. A market for these services will be required to ensure the procurement and dispatch of these services save money while keeping the network electrically secure.

Further work will also include unlocking the benefits for all energy consumers to gain the advantages of rooftop solar PV, batteries, and smart appliances. Improvement in these areas may also include how consumers source their energy.

As generation is only part of the equation the need to reform the way electricity is transported is also a key redesign topic. Upgrading the network with the construction of transmission lines will reduce congestion and allow cheaper generation to be built in regional areas and improve the diversification of the grid by opening up more geographic locations.

The question most end users are asking is who is paying for all these improvements. As usual the end user will pay. The ESB is understood to be recommending capacity payments for electricity generators to remain online. These generators are likely to be the older coal fleet so consumers will be paying to keep higher carbon intensive technologies online rather than supporting renewables.

This situation will pay generators an available payment to generate when required. In reality, these units will not generate unless the market is at the point of load shedding.

Capacity payments are used in the Western Australian electricity market, under their current arrangements, generators receive capacity credits in line with their units generating capacity.

In the NEM if capacity payments are introduced, they will essentially offset the Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader (RERT) costs currently used to provide a similar service.

POWER BILL ON THE WAY UP

With Australia moving back to more lock downs it is interesting to see how COVID is impacting individual households.

Household electricity use has increased by 10% as people have been working from home and as a result household power bills increased by 7%. The bill increases are related to the increased consumption even though the underlying wholesale electricity prices have dropped by 4.8%.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) reported that even though household consumption increased it was at the demise of small business electricity use which decreased by 17%.

With wholesale prices dropping they are putting pressure on the profits of the retailers but despite the pressures the ACCC expects household bills to drop further as the wholesale prices flow through to the end user.

Low spot prices following COVID and the penetration of renewable energy triggered profit warnings from Origin Energy, AGL Energy, Stanwell, and Energy Australia.

As safeguards end on 1 July, the ACCC has warned retailers they are obliged to pass on the lower wholesale prices. This is despite the increases experienced in May and June when spot prices increased following the failure at Callide power station.

The “big stick” legislation that started in June 2020, obligates retailers to adjust their prices in line with their costs of securing electricity.

The ACCC is currently investigating several electricity retailers’ prices to see if recent wholesale price reductions were being passed on to consumers.

STANWELL CEO RESIGNS

Just days after the shock announcement that Brett Redman was leaving his role as CEO of AGL, Richard Van Breda, CEO of Stanwell has also resigned.

Richard has been the CEO of Stanwell since 2012 and has led the company through many challenges including potential asset sales, the retirement of Collinsville and Swanbank B power stations, droughts, a drop in the spot and contract prices and COVID-19.

Earlier in the week Richard announced that Stanwell had long term plans to transition from a largely coal fired generator to a renewable energy and storage business.

He said, “We are taking early steps to bring our people, communities, unions and governments together to put plans in place.”  Mr Van Breda also said  “Over the coming years, Stanwell will respond to the renewable energy needs of our large commercial and industrial customers through the introduction of new low or zero emission generation technologies”.

Mr Van Breda will continue full time in the CEO role until May 28 when an Acting CEO will take over and the process to recruit a permanent replacement will commence.

Back to Basics Series – National Metering Identifiers (NMIs)

We’re embarking on a series of posts that go back to basics. As electricity market experts, too often we come across people and / or businesses who lack an understanding of what can and can’t be done in the market. Inevitably we find that it is difficult to educate if the basics aren’t fully understood. 

There is no doubt that energy markets are highly complex. For example, understanding every aspect of the National Electricity Market (NEM) is near impossible. But a solid understanding of the fundamentals is essential if you stand any chance of knowing some of the more complex aspects of it.

National Metering Identifiers

A National Metering Identifier (NMI) is a unique 10 or 11 digit number used to identify every electricity network connection point in Australia. This includes all types of metered and unmetered electricity connections to the physical electricity networks in the National Electricity Market (NEM), Western Australia markets (SWIS and NWIS) and the Northern Territory.

Learning about NMIs and their function is essential. NMIs allow all the relevant players in the market to identify your network connection point and the associated services, costs and service providers associated with it. NMIs and all the data and information associated with them, are recorded in the Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO’s) Market Settlement and Transfer Solutions system (MSATS), which all key service providers have access to. Put simply, MSATS is the IT system operated by AEMO to fulfil its obligations under the National Electricity Rules (NER). We’ll post on this soon.

Via MSATS, retailers become financially responsible for your NMI in the market, and therefore the costs associated with it. The energy and market costs to AEMO, the network use of system (NUOS) costs to your Network Service Provider (NSP), and the metering costs to your metering co-ordinator (MC). Your retailer is responsible for paying these costs to the relevant providers, and then recovers these costs through charges to you in your retail energy invoice.

Meter data is collected and recorded against a NMI. Any connection related works at your premises must be done with reference to a NMI (for example the installation of embedded generation). NMIs are transferred from service provider to service provider as the preferred party for these services changes, such as retailers and metering providers.

You can find your NMI on your electricity invoice. Noting a NMI will only change if there is a change to the physical connection infrastructure (for example, a change to the connection configuration or voltage) or the physical connection is removed and then later re-established.

In terms of industry speak, NMIs are often pronounced “Nim-ees” or “N M I’s”.

In the coming posts we will focus on the installation of generation at a NMI, including small scale solar PV and larger utility scale installations. How the configuration of generation can influence your consumption requirements from the market / grid and associated regulatory impacts.

Any questions, please don’t hesitate to contact us on 1800 334 336 or email save@edgeutilities.com.au or admin@edge2020.com.au

Green Star Building Rating Reject Gas

In a major overhaul of the Green Building Council of Australia’s (GBCA) Green Star rating system, Australian buildings hoping to achieve the gold standard for sustainability will now have to ditch gas.

For buildings to achieve the highest 6 star rating, the building will be required to be fossil fuel free and 100% renewable powered.

The Green Star rating system was launched by the GBCA in 2003 as an independent and voluntary certification system that assesses the sustainability of construction projects across all stages of their life cycle.

Green Star rated buildings have been recognised as having a higher standard of sustainability and energy efficiency than buildings that meet the National Construction Code.

The industry has supported the need to eliminate carbon emissions from buildings and construction to meet obligations under the Paris Agreement, this has resulted in the new focus.

Atlassian, the company behind energy-savvy billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes has signed on to use Green Star Buildings for its flagship new Sydney headquarters.

The new ratings will push for electrification however emerging technologies, such as green gas will be beneficial to reaching the higher standards as it aligns with Australia’s goals in energy transformation and emissions reduction.

AEMO Leads Global Push to Slash Emissions

As seen in recent reports published by Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), which include the Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) and the Integrated System Plan (ISP), the outstanding trend is the rapid growth of renewables and the need to connect the generation and load in a more robust manner.

As coal is retired the replacement technologies are now Solar and Wind.  This is resulting in issues such as, inertia and system strength. The network needs to be redesigned to cope with limitations, due to the lack of inertia provided by non-synchronous generation such as Solar and Wind.

AEMO, in conjunction with various Transmission Network Service Providers (TNSP) is leading the world in solving the issues associated with greater intermittent renewable generation on the network.

AEMO have launched the Global Power System Consortium (G-PST), a consortium of the six largest system operators grappling with high volumes of renewable generation and growth. The group includes:

  • Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)
  • The National Grid Electricity System Operator UK
  • California Independent System Operator (CAISO)
  • The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT)
  • Ireland’s System Operator (EirGrid)
  • Denmark’s System Operator (Energinet)

The charter for the group is to achieve a 50 per cent cut in emissions by unlocking $10 trillion worth of investment in wind, solar and enabling technologies over the next 10 years.

Along with the lead members, 25 other system operators from around the world will participate in the G-PST. Several large research institutions will take part in the technical work, including:

  • Commonwealth Scientific Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
  • The Fraunhofer Cluster of Excellence for Integrated Energy Systems
  • National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
  • Latin American Energy Organization (OLADE)
  • Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE)
  • Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)
  • The Danish Technical University (DTU)
  • ASEAN Center for Energy (ACE)

During the announcement at London’s Bloomberg New Energy Finance Summit, AEMO Chief Executive Officer, Ms Audrey Zibelman announced that, “Countries around the world are looking to pursue a path to modern low-emissions energy systems, but face significant challenges in acquiring and applying the technical knowledge needed to operate and plan rapidly transforming power systems”.

She went on to say that “The goal of G-PST is bold: to contribute to more than 50% emissions reductions of all pollutants around the world, over the next ten years, by acting as an enabler of new clean energy integration.”

GreenPower Rebranding

 

 

GreenPower, Australia’s accreditation program for renewable electricity is rebranding, to create renewed interest from businesses looking to cut their emissions. The GreenPower brand was launched in 1997 at the start of the renewable energy push towards electricity customers. At the time, most major electricity retailers offered some form of GreenPower as an extra to their electricity products.

The GreenPower program is voluntary for households and businesses to purchase renewable electricity through their retailer. It is a government backed program for verifying that purchases are from Australia’s wind and solar resources and aim to cut emissions. The GreenPower program sits on top of the mandated Renewable Energy Target so customers are voluntarily purchasing above what is legally required and therefore are supporting the increased growth of the Australian renewable energy sector.

To date 110,000 households and 17,500 businesses purchased renewable electricity through the GreenPower program, this comes from 500 accredited projects.

With the reduction in the cost of LGCs, the GreenPower program is encouraging households and businesses to consider participating in the voluntary program. As technologies improve, the cost of production of renewable energy has reduced since its inception in 1997, as a result renewable energy has become cheaper and this has flowed into the GreenPower product.

With the changing housing situation in Australia, many end users now rent and do not have access to roof top PV. The GreenPower program is a way for residential energy users without the ability to install rooftop solar to purchase renewable energy.

There are many benefits to going green with GreenPower. Your purchase supports Australian renewables, reduces your emissions, and contributes to a healthy future.

If you are wanting to protect the environment and support renewables, choosing GreenPower is a powerful way to show that your business is environmentally conscious and supports Australia’s renewable energy sector.

Our utilities retailers offer a range of green generation alternatives to help you meet your sustainability goals, including renewables, onsite solar generation, and energy efficient solutions.

Let Edge Utilities help you procure the best GreenPower deal for you.

Summer Reliability Looking Good

 

On Thursday 27 August 2020, AEMO published its latest Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), this is a projection of electricity supply reliability in the National Electricity Market (NEM) for the next 10 years.

The ESOO is key in identifying gaps in reliability which could lead to the calling of the Retailer Reliability Obligation (RRO) in the coming 5 years. As the ESOO covers the next 10 years, the second 5 years following the RRO looks closer at forecasts for the major transmission upgrades and the continued development of renewable generation.

This years ESOO has looked at the impact of COVID-19 and how this could impact the outlooks uncertainty. As a result of COVID-19 and the change in generation mix, demand changes and the gas market, it has resulted in AEMO not forecasting any unserved energy (USE) for the coming summer.

This years’ ESOO will require an update if the impact of COVID-19 is rapidly reversed due to a faster return to normal than expected. There are a few points of concern in AEMO’s statement including the delays or deferment of planned outages that could affect reliability over summer. ElectraNet have also reduced the summer rating on the Victoria to South Australia Interconnector in both directions following damage incurred during the bushfires of 2020.

A further downside of the reduced flow across the interconnectors is the further delays of the commissioning of renewable projects across the regions resulting in AEMO needing to deploy Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader (RERT) to manage the expected unserved energy. The focus following this summer will be the outlook for reliability in New South Wales when Liddell Power Station retires.

The outlook has improved since the 2019 ESOO with the augmentation of the Queensland to New South Wales Interconnector (QNI) in 2022 to 2023 and increase renewable generation development in the region.

Another interesting observation is that by 2025, the minimum operational demand will occur during the middle of the day not the historic period overnight. As previously discussed, this will lead to the challenges of managing voltage, system strength and inertia.

AEMO is working with aggregators of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) to offer services such as increased PV controllability, load flexibility, storage, and load shifting.

Another urgent action for new projects is the requirement to ensure all new distributed PV installations have suitable disturbance ride-through capabilities and emergency PV shedding capabilities.

AEMO is also working with various stakeholder and industry experts to ensure energy supply is protected from the effects of increasing frequency, extremity and scale of climate induced weather events observed in recent years.

The NEM continues to see the connection of a large quantity of renewable generation with 4,300MW of new capacity forecast to be operational this summer, 1,900MW of this is expected in Victoria.

Due to impacts of COVID-19 and increased renewable generation penetration the reliability of thermal generators could remain at the historic lows observed during 2019-2020 or deteriorate further resulting in volatility.