ORIGIN DEMERGER

Last week it was AGL. Is it now Origin Energy’s turn to announce a demerger?

On Thursday Origin Energy’s CEO put an end to the speculation, saying that they would not be taking AGLs lead and demerging their business for now.  In the announcement, AGL’s rival highlighted the benefit for the company to stay whole, but to diversify their earnings.

Commentary around the potential demerger has been highlighted by Edge and others over the last couple of months. Edge saw an opportunity for Origin to either spin off its retail business or split the business into 2, being electricity and gas.

Origin is a complicated business, operating across both electricity and gas, and across wholesale and retail. Parts of the business are also tied up in joint ventures such as the LNG export terminals in Australia and its part share in Octopus Energy in the UK. Origin has reported that it ‘‘will continue to assess the portfolio’’.

Origin’s structure is different to AGL’s.  Origin’s LNG business is currently propping up its domestic gas and electricity business units. If the pressure from a dropping international gas price puts stress on LNG returns, we may well see Origin have a closer look at its portfolio and structure.

Currently the APLNG venture returns $800M to Origin after tax.

CEO Mr Calabria said “Origin’s energy market business already looks very much like the ‘’new AGL’’’, with the notable difference that Origin has a more gas fired portfolio, with Eraring (the only coal unit) flagged to shut down from 2030.

Mr Calabria has also shown limited expectations in the short term for the energy industry, unless we see hotter summers leading to higher demand or the shutdown of coal power generation as a result of the unsustainable low spot prices.  He remarked that the market is in an ‘‘unstable equilibrium’’ as an increased amount of renewable generation enters the market and the resulting wholesale prices squeeze profits of the generators and retailers.

As we move through this unstable equilibrium, Origin sees opportunities for State governments to take NSW’s lead and introduce policies to motivate investment rather than wait for increases in spot price.

NB: Spot prices have historically been the leading indicator for investment in new generation. If government led roadmaps became predominant, it may lead to a smoother transition to a renewable future and the orderly retirement of coal and gas generation.

So, with APLNG subsidising Origin’s other business streams we are unlikely to see a demerger, but can Origin utilise this upper hand in the market to push out the competition – demerged or not?

IS GAS THE TRANSITIONAL FUEL?

 

Following feedback from industry that gas is not the transitional fuel for Australia to help move from Coal fired generation to renewables, AEMO is grappling with their plan to model a ‘gas led recovery’ scenario for the 2022 Integrated System Plan (ISP).

AEMO are now calling the ‘gas led recovery’ the ‘diversified technology’ scenario.

It appears that not all is dead for gas as an option as the transitional fuel and a fuel used into the future. Methane (CH4) is commonly thought of as the gas to power generation, however in this case it looks like ammonia (NH3) could be used. This carbon free fuel can be made by renewable hydrogen and is commonly used in fuel cells and rocket engines as a propellant.

Gas turbine generators are essentially modified rocket engines so it’s not hard to imagine ammonia to be used to fuel power generating gas turbines. Mitsubishi Power have developed gas turbines to operate on hydrogen but now they have gone a step further to develop ammonia-fired technology.

Mitsubishi Power is currently developing a version of its 40MW H-25 series gas turbine that would operate using ammonia, this commercial scale gas turbine is the first in the world to operate on ammonia as a fuel and is expected to reach commercialisation by 2025.

Ammonia is the chosen fuel as it is a highly effective transporter of hydrogen, using readily available nitrogen molecules to create a stable compound able to be easily stored and transported.

Apart from the usability of ammonia as a fuel source it comes with the added benefit of achieving a carbon neutrality fuel.

As with any technology there is always a downside, the combustion of ammonia results in the production of Nitrogen oxide (NOx).  NOx can have harmful effects on the environment by creating smog and in some cases acid rain. The NOx by-product can be reduced using catalytic similar to the ones used in car exhausts to reduce the level of emissions.

Edge News – March 2021 Newsletter

If your business isn’t looking at renewable backed energy deals, you are fast becoming the minority. All major market retailers and generators are seeing an exponential increase in enquiries for renewable backed energy deals and are scrambling to service this.

We only hope ownership remains diversified and we continue to see retail products take shape for smaller C&I and multi-SME consumers. They need access to renewables as much as the largest users.

Edge News – February 2021 Newsletter

We don’t know if time really does go faster as you get older, or if we hit the ground running so fast into 2021 that it felt like January was over before it started. Either way, whilst many enjoyed an extended break after a challenging 2020, our teams were pumping with productivity.
It’s the year of the Ox and we’re pretty excited about it! Diligence, resilience, and upward momentum symbolise the Chinese year of the Ox, and our team couldn’t be working more diligently, resiliently, or with any more upward momentum! We’re so excited to be proactively involved in the energy transition, and working with many brilliant minds to bring a range of renewable backed solutions to market – financial and physical.

To say 2020 has been a colossal year………… is an understatement!

As the year rounds to an end, we would like to take the time to reflect and give thanks. Our sincere thanks to all those who have supported us during this difficult year. Our thoughts and best wishes go out to the individuals, families, and businesses who too have been adversely impacted by the events of 2020. We wish you well as you pivot and rebuild.

The year that was…

Big picture:

  • Trump does, well Trump things – drones, tweets, fails to manage COVID-19 better than anyone, apparently wins an election that he didn’t actually win.
  • China flexes its military muscles in our backyard, their international trade muscles get a workout too.
  • Oh, China also “seemingly” gifts the world COVID-19.
  • A global pandemic follows – 59.7 million cases worldwide, over 1.4 million deaths.
  • Entire industries and businesses are decimated as governments deliver unprecedented incentives.

Close to home:

  • Australian bushfires rage – 46 million acres burn, 1 billion animals perish, 6,000 buildings go, 34 people die.
  • Australia locks down to the threat of COVID-19 – 27.8k cases, over 900 deaths.
  • State and federal governments start spending, leading us into 2021 with a propped-up economy.
  • The RBA drops the cash rate to 0.10%.
  • Energy prices crash – only recently starting to rebound.
  • Many equity and commodity markets crash – most having firmly recovered.
  • Victorians are banished, for months.
  • The AFL grand final is played in QLD – and during the night! Go Tigers!!!
  • The State of Origin is played in three weeks, with the “worst QLD team ever” winning the series.
  • Northern NSW and QLD property prices soar, as they are deemed the safe space to be by cashed up southerners?!……… along with Chris Hemsworth and his mates.
  • Anna has “kept us safe” so she lives to torment Gladys another day.

 Closer to home:

  • Edge Energy Services turns 13 years young and is rebranded Edge2020.
  • Our team trades over $627 million in energy and environmental products.
  • Over 5.7 TWh  approximately $283 million in energy.
  • Over 800k Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs), 1.2m Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs), and 33k Energy Savings Certificates (ESCs), totalling over $77 million in environmental certificates.
  • We facilitate over 775 GWh p.a. of renewable power purchase agreements (PPAs), with terms from 5 to 9 years and a total value of over $267 million.
  • We dive deep into the Safeguard Mechanism and deal in several Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs).
  • We continue to structure competitive renewable deals, and we blend and extend as we knowingly fall on our progressive portfolio management sword.
  • We say a temporary goodbye to a few large clients, as they bed down with fixed term fixed (COVID friendly) prices and + 30% savings.
  • We re-contract a number of larger clients, as they continue to support us as a valued business partner and energy management team.
  • Our team expands, then contracts, as we ride the wave of uncertainty.
  • Edge LIVE gets a welcomed facelift and a few new features, including deal capture.
  • Edge Utilities is reborn, officially launching on 1 July 2020. With a tenacious new National Sales Manager and some valued service providers, we deliver a shiny new website edgeutilities.com.au.
  • We dive into the world of strata / body corporate and all things embedded networks – determined to bring value to a “smaller” large consumer.
  • Our journey in this new world uncovers the good, the bad, and unfortunately, the ugly.
  • New products and business opportunities arise, pipelines grow, new trading partners present, new alliances are formed.

On a more personal note:

  • R U OK? Day coincides with me going public in support of kinder client relations with staff – too many lives lost, too many reasons why.
  • We focus on our people, as individuals that instinctively operate within our core values – with integrity, honesty, trust, loyalty, and respect.
  • With increased working from home arrangements, we become even more focused on cultivating a cohesive, supportive, and collaborate team culture.
  • We watch David Attenborough’s witness statement “A Life on Our Planet” and ask ourselves – How can we use our expertise to contribute to the “road to recovery?

2021 looks busy, but oh so sustainably bright!

  • We will shift our focus even more to renewable solutions, products, and markets.
  • Edge Utilities will move to become a fully renewable backed brokerage service.
  • We will soon be offering physical renewable solutions behind the meter and getting more involved in managing Frequency Control Ancillary Services (FCAS) and Virtual Power Plants (VPPs).
  • Edge2020 will continue to play a key role in assisting our clients to achieve their sustainability objectives and proactively manage energy market risks.

With renewable solutions exponentially gaining momentum, we’ve never been more excited about where our market and products are headed!

We hope you take a well-earned and restful Christmas break with loved ones.

Our team look forward to sharing much more detail with you soon and working with you in 2021.

Stay safe and well.

Stacey Vacher
Managing Director, Edge2020, Edge Utilities

What is a VPP?

Many of you would have seen the acronym VPP floating around the energy industry, in AEMO documents and publications like the Integrated System Plan (ISP). So, what is a VPP? A Virtual Power Plant (VPP) is basically an aggregation of resources. These can be generation, storage and controllable load from decentralised sources.  All being coordinated to deliver services to the power grid including electricity, FCAS and other power system services.

Last week battery manufacturer Sonnen reached the magic threshold of 1MW to operate in the National Electricity Market (NEM) and plans to operate a VPP.

The German based company, Sonnen, now owned by Shell, has built a network of customers to allow their Sonnen branded home batteries to participate in the company’s new virtual power plant.  This has been designed to provide frequency control services. The customers will receive a financial benefit through cash payments. Sonnen’s new program will also provide grid stability services.

The VPP branded, sonnenConnect is Sonnen’s first VPP worldwide.

Each Sonnen battery will not be heavily relied on due to the nature of the VPP aggregating all outputs. To operate in the FCAS market, each household will only be required to supply 4kWh of energy to provide the essential grid stability services.

To be eligible to participate in Sonnen’s VPP and rewards program, households will need to have one of Sonnen’s batteries installed, with at least 4kWh of capacity. No additional equipment will be required to allow batteries to participate in the program as Sonnen batteries incorporate the necessary control systems.

Sonnen has chosen Australia to launch its VPP products as Australia is more open to the establishment of VPPs, along with the high uptake of battery storage system installations compared to other parts of the world.

“With the growing uptake of rooftop solar and home batteries globally, utilities are recognising the importance of home batteries in Frequency Control Ancillary Services (FCAS) or what is known as demand response, to stabilise the grid when there is a surge in the demand for electricity”, Nathan Dunn, Sonnen Australia CEO said.

He also said “through sonnenConnect, we are rewarding customers who are providing us access to their Sonnen Battery when needed for demand response. Not only will they enjoy being energy independent, Sonnen Battery owners are working together as a community to stabilise the energy grid that connects millions of homeowners in the National Electricity Market.”

Sonnen has established a manufacturing facility at the former Holden factory in Adelaide. This allows Sonnen to be branded Australian made. They plan to use the Australian facility to produce other components and software for the energy industry including electric vehicle charging units.

Engie Expands in Australia

The influx of multinational’s into the Australian renewable energy industry is increasing with historic oil and gas producers such as Shell, BP and Total entering the market.

These global energy giants are making large acquisitions to expand their local presence in the clean energy sector. In a world where developers are struggling to bank projects the strong balance sheets of these companies is a welcome addition to the industry.

Engie is the most recent multinational company to expand in Australia with the purchase of development rights to the $750 million Hills of Gold wind project in northern New South Wales.

This project is the foundation development in the newly created Renewable Energy Zones (REZ) in New South Wales’s New England region. This REZ is the first REZ to be created under Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) vision.

The acquisition of the Hills of Gold Wind Farm will add 420MW into the region. The project was previously developed by Wind Energy Partners.

Engie is one of the world’s largest electricity utilities, with the French multinational operating more than 115GW of generation capacity globally, including a 19GW portfolio of renewable energy projects.

The project will consist of 70 6MW wind turbines and will be connected to the transmission network between Liddell and Tamworth.

Engie has previously owned power assets in Australia, being the operator of the brown-coal Hazelwood power station in Victoria that was closed in 2017. They have ambitious targets for Australia, hoping to develop 2,000MW of Solar and wind projects.

Engie has recently set up the Australian Renewable Energy Trust with Infrastructure Capital Group and Mitsui as a renewable investment vehicle. The trust contains Engie’s 119MW Willogoleche wind farm and it is likely the Hills of Gold project will be added to it.

Green Star Building Rating Reject Gas

In a major overhaul of the Green Building Council of Australia’s (GBCA) Green Star rating system, Australian buildings hoping to achieve the gold standard for sustainability will now have to ditch gas.

For buildings to achieve the highest 6 star rating, the building will be required to be fossil fuel free and 100% renewable powered.

The Green Star rating system was launched by the GBCA in 2003 as an independent and voluntary certification system that assesses the sustainability of construction projects across all stages of their life cycle.

Green Star rated buildings have been recognised as having a higher standard of sustainability and energy efficiency than buildings that meet the National Construction Code.

The industry has supported the need to eliminate carbon emissions from buildings and construction to meet obligations under the Paris Agreement, this has resulted in the new focus.

Atlassian, the company behind energy-savvy billionaire Mike Cannon-Brookes has signed on to use Green Star Buildings for its flagship new Sydney headquarters.

The new ratings will push for electrification however emerging technologies, such as green gas will be beneficial to reaching the higher standards as it aligns with Australia’s goals in energy transformation and emissions reduction.

Quarterly Report – Q320

Here at Edge Utilities, we specialise in delivering enterprise buying power to businesses, Strata and Body Corporates. The Edge Utilities Quarterly Report is a resource that educates you more about the energy and utilities market, in turn, helping you. The report consists of an educational segment, market information (such as movements and forward fundamentals), and the occasional profile piece.

In this report, we will look at the National Electricity Market (NEM) and what factors impacted pricing and demand in the second quarter of 2020 (Q320). The impact of which COVID-19 had on Q320, has only been modest in respect to demand. Q320 saw the lowest wholesale electricity and gas prices in the National Electricity Market (NEM) since 2014. Some of the key drivers behind this result included:

  • East coast wholesale gas prices averaging $3.85/GJ, down from $9.75/GJ in 2019
  • Changes in the generation mix
  • Power system security concerns
  • Operational demand continuing to fall
  • Spot prices dropping
  • Falls in Electricity futures
  • Weather

Also featured in this report, is an article on the benefits behind using a broker or consultant.

Are you ready to Re.Think your utilities contracts to save money and get better value?

Download a copy of the full Q320 Report here: Edge Utilities – Quarterly Report – Edition 2

 

To keep up-to-date with Edge Utilities, connect with us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/edge-utilities/

Changes to your Energy Bill

Changes to your Energy Bill

The effects of COVID-19 have impacted the retail energy space heavily in the last 12 months. This has caused underlying costs of electricity production to decrease significantly. It is expected that costs will remain low for the next 6 to 12 months.

As the Australian economy begins to rebuild itself in the next 6 to 12 months, it is expected that costs will remain low. Following the impact of COVID-19, came price changes with the introduction of the Default Market Offer (DMO) and Victorian Default Offer (VDO).

The DMO outlines the annual maximum total bill amount that an energy company can charge to eligible residential and small business customers in New South Wales, South Australia, and South East Queensland. Energy retailers use the DMO as a reference price, to guide how they structure their charges. However, retailers can set their own supply and usage charges provided they are equal to or less than the DMO price. The VDO is like the DMO, however is applicable to eligible Victorian customers only.

High electricity offers have now reduced significantly. This reduction means end users who choose to switch offers will still save money but not as much as prior years. The difference between the highest standing offer and lowest market offer has decreased by 10%. Although there has been a decrease in the overall offer price, Victoria has actually seen a 10% increase. The average market offer price is still considered to be quite high at 56%. It is unclear whether these changes are because of the DMO and VDO changes, or by increased market competition.

Market Competition

The increased market competition appears to be pushing retail energy prices down after the introduction of 40 new retail brands. In the last 12 months alone, 35 new companies have entered the market. There have also been 8 existing brands who have expanded into other states jurisdictions and are now offering new products. Net retailer margins across the National Electricity Market (NEM) have also dropped due to increased competition. This has seen on average, a decrease of $93 to $66 per customer in the last 2 years.

Products deemed to be essential services such as electricity and gas, have also continued to evolve. To appeal more to customers, retailers are strategically using add-on products as a way of selling the underlying product. Most retailers are doing this by bundling electricity and gas with internet and phone services.

As we can see, there has been a large amount of changes to the market and to customers costs. However, an Energy Consumers Australia (ECA) survey has shown that end users are happier. The results of the survey showed that 57% of customers believed there was value for money at today’s price. Switching rates are a leading indicator of customer dissatisfaction, and recently these have lowered.

 

Written by: Alex Driscoll

 

To learn about what else is changing in the market, read our latest article: https://edgeutilities.com.au/2020-isp/

To stay up-to-date with Edge Utilities, connect with us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/edge-utilities/