BIGGER BATTERIES AND LARGER STORAGE

Back in 2017 following the black out of South Australia, the Tesla big battery was announced as the largest lithium-ion battery in the world. Weighing in at 100MW/150MWh the unit was big and provided enough storage to get regions through short duration period of high price of low availability. At the time, most people in Australia thought of batteries as a small segment of the industry and did not predict batteries to make any meaningful impact on the market for the next 10 to 20 years.

The Tesla big battery has now grown to 150MW/194MWh with the addition of extra batteries but has lost its title as the world’s largest and is likely to lose the title as Australia’s largest battery with Neon installing a 300MW/450MWh big battery near Geelong.

Now even Australia’s newest largest battery is about to be pushed off the top step as large scale wind and solar projects are installing larger, high-capacity batteries.

Most large-scale batteries in Australia have not been operating as storage devices, instead offering a service to “time shift” generation out of intermittent generation such as solar or wind to the time where the energy is required and returns better prices. The big batteries have predominantly been operating in the frequency market where they deliver network services such as frequency control ancillary services and synthetic inertia. To provide the network service the batteries operate for short sharp periods and as a result do not require large amounts of storage duration. As the competition in the network services segment of the industry increases the price for these services has reduced. Battery developers are now focusing on “time shifting” to provide better return for their projects rather than being exposed to low solar hour prices.

As coal fired generators retire the “duck curve” will deepen opening more opportunities for batteries to time shift the wind and solar generation into the evening peaks.  Developers are now looking for large duration storage to optimise their returns over the evening peaks. It now appears a 4-hour storage duration is the norm.

In recent weeks we have seen the large market players with significant thermal generation installed entering the battery developer market. Energy Australia is planning a 350MW big battery with four-hour storage at Yallourn.  AGL is constructing a 250MW big battery with four-hour storage at its Torrens Island site in South Australia which has announced the mothballing of its gas units. AGL also plans to replicate the 250MW battery at its Loy Yang coal site in Victoria. At Eraring, Origin is planning to install a big battery to offset generation when the coal fired power station closes.

The question is, if “time shifting” occurs, the times when the battery charges will likely raise spot prices as demand increases and the evening peak prices should drop. To make money battery operators will need to arbitrage the charging cost with the price they receive when they discharge. With the increased penetration of wind and solar generation into the generation mix the spot prices during the solar hours are likely to fall further however with many large-scale battery developers still heavily reliant on coal fired generation the optimisation of their exist portfolio will be interesting to see.

AGL DEMERGER

Last week AGL shared its plans to split the existing business into two. The announcement on Wednesday was not taken well by investors as shares dropped 10% when chairman Peter Botten made the announcement. The share price continued to fall through the week closing on Friday at $8.13 well below the $17.72 price a year ago. Investors are concerned that the two entities will lack the financial capacity to grow the businesses.

Accel, the coal fired part of the business will be led by current AGL CEO Graeme Hunt while Christine Corbett will run the retail business. Accel will earn its returns from carbon intense assets so institutional investors are steering clear of the business, Accel will also retain a 15-20% ownership of AGL Australia. Apart from a lower share price pushing investors away, it is also expected dividends will continue to fall for the 2022 financial year. AGLs retail business will retain the clean energy assets and the retail business.

The previous CEO of AGL Brett Redman proposed the demerger to evolve the business in a rapidly changing marketplace. Prior to the demerger AGL had consolidated to form a vertically integrated business, this worked well over recent years however the business structure is no longer optimal.

Customers are after a cleaner alternative to coal fired generation so the retail business that will retain the customers will be merged with the carbon neutral portfolio of assets resulting in customers sourcing their power from cleaner green generation sources.

While AGLs demerger does not seem to be seen by investors as a positive direction, Edge has previously highlighted that the splitting up of generation businesses is gaining momentum overseas with many fossils fuelled businesses creating businesses to develop a green focus and meet the customers’ demands. Time will tell if the demerge strategy will benefit to AGL.

Despite the negative outlook for Accel with its fleet of coal fired assets there is a positive light at the end of the tunnel. As the existing coal fired assets are retired Accel will retain their key location on the grid. Their favourable locations on the grid will allow Accel to transform the connection points from a high carbon emitting locations to low carbon hubs as new cleaner generation and storage is installed.

POWER BILL ON THE WAY UP

With Australia moving back to more lock downs it is interesting to see how COVID is impacting individual households.

Household electricity use has increased by 10% as people have been working from home and as a result household power bills increased by 7%. The bill increases are related to the increased consumption even though the underlying wholesale electricity prices have dropped by 4.8%.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) reported that even though household consumption increased it was at the demise of small business electricity use which decreased by 17%.

With wholesale prices dropping they are putting pressure on the profits of the retailers but despite the pressures the ACCC expects household bills to drop further as the wholesale prices flow through to the end user.

Low spot prices following COVID and the penetration of renewable energy triggered profit warnings from Origin Energy, AGL Energy, Stanwell, and Energy Australia.

As safeguards end on 1 July, the ACCC has warned retailers they are obliged to pass on the lower wholesale prices. This is despite the increases experienced in May and June when spot prices increased following the failure at Callide power station.

The “big stick” legislation that started in June 2020, obligates retailers to adjust their prices in line with their costs of securing electricity.

The ACCC is currently investigating several electricity retailers’ prices to see if recent wholesale price reductions were being passed on to consumers.

Edge News – June 2021 Newsletter

As we head into a new financial year consider the usual activities at this time of year. Consumers on financial year contracts would (should!) be recontracted by now, leading to a temporary decrease in demand for forward contracts from a consumer perspective. Wholesale contract traders will be squaring away positions for financial year end, so we should expect some profit taking from those in long positions and vice versa!

One thing we all know with contracting energy… timing is everything!  Edge2020 clients provide tips on how to contract better.

We’ve been working with some amazing clients these past couple of months, and we highlight one in particular who was an absolute pleasure to work with (and who we helped save nearly half a million dollars).

We also review Callide – what happened and what now?

RENEWABLE ENERGY ON WOOLWORTH’S SHOPPING LIST

Woolworths have signed a 10-year agreement to purchase electricity from the Bango Wind Farm. The new 82.8MW wind farm is located in New South Wales near the town of Yass.

The output from the wind farm will cover about 30% of Woolworths NSW electricity needs which will be used to provide renewable energy for 108 supermarkets and offset 158,000t of emissions each year.

The project being developed by CWP Renewables is expected to commence supplying electricity under the PPA in January 2022.

Woolworths has a target to move to 100% renewable electricity by 2025 as part of its larger ambitions to become carbon neutral and then take more carbon out of the atmosphere than they produce by 2050.

Woolworths operate in an energy intensive sector with supermarkets consuming large quantities of electricity. They implemented strategies to use their scale to benefit the community and the environment. Woolworths prioritise their support for new renewable energy project builds which invest in renewable energy while also supporting jobs in regional areas.

The Woolworths Group accounts for around one per cent of Australia’s total energy use. Woolworths continues options to invest in more renewable projects and is also looking to partner with energy retailers on new build renewable projects. Woolworth procurement strategy will assist in accelerating the availability and affordability of renewable energy for all Australian households and businesses as it continues its target to converts to 100% renewable sources by 2025.

The 100% renewable energy target by 2025 will support Woolworths’s transition to its carbon reduction target of 63 per cent by 2030.

Apart from the use of renewable energy in its supermarkets, Woolworths have also reduced its carbon footprint by around 25% by using energy efficiency initiatives such as converting its supermarket lighting to LEDs and optimising its air conditioning and refrigeration systems.

Back to Basics Series – National Metering Identifiers (NMIs)

We’re embarking on a series of posts that go back to basics. As electricity market experts, too often we come across people and / or businesses who lack an understanding of what can and can’t be done in the market. Inevitably we find that it is difficult to educate if the basics aren’t fully understood. 

There is no doubt that energy markets are highly complex. For example, understanding every aspect of the National Electricity Market (NEM) is near impossible. But a solid understanding of the fundamentals is essential if you stand any chance of knowing some of the more complex aspects of it.

National Metering Identifiers

A National Metering Identifier (NMI) is a unique 10 or 11 digit number used to identify every electricity network connection point in Australia. This includes all types of metered and unmetered electricity connections to the physical electricity networks in the National Electricity Market (NEM), Western Australia markets (SWIS and NWIS) and the Northern Territory.

Learning about NMIs and their function is essential. NMIs allow all the relevant players in the market to identify your network connection point and the associated services, costs and service providers associated with it. NMIs and all the data and information associated with them, are recorded in the Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO’s) Market Settlement and Transfer Solutions system (MSATS), which all key service providers have access to. Put simply, MSATS is the IT system operated by AEMO to fulfil its obligations under the National Electricity Rules (NER). We’ll post on this soon.

Via MSATS, retailers become financially responsible for your NMI in the market, and therefore the costs associated with it. The energy and market costs to AEMO, the network use of system (NUOS) costs to your Network Service Provider (NSP), and the metering costs to your metering co-ordinator (MC). Your retailer is responsible for paying these costs to the relevant providers, and then recovers these costs through charges to you in your retail energy invoice.

Meter data is collected and recorded against a NMI. Any connection related works at your premises must be done with reference to a NMI (for example the installation of embedded generation). NMIs are transferred from service provider to service provider as the preferred party for these services changes, such as retailers and metering providers.

You can find your NMI on your electricity invoice. Noting a NMI will only change if there is a change to the physical connection infrastructure (for example, a change to the connection configuration or voltage) or the physical connection is removed and then later re-established.

In terms of industry speak, NMIs are often pronounced “Nim-ees” or “N M I’s”.

In the coming posts we will focus on the installation of generation at a NMI, including small scale solar PV and larger utility scale installations. How the configuration of generation can influence your consumption requirements from the market / grid and associated regulatory impacts.

Any questions, please don’t hesitate to contact us on 1800 334 336 or email save@edgeutilities.com.au or admin@edge2020.com.au

Happy 2021 from Managing Director, Stacey Vacher

Intertwined with Christmas and New Year celebrations, Edge2020 capped off the ‘year that was’ with excellent news regarding a 58MW renewable power purchase agreement (PPA) we brokered, and the re-signing of our longest serving and largest client.

With more renewable PPAs in the pipeline, we hope to share more good news in the coming weeks. This year we are more committed than ever to deliver consumers and generators ‘win-win’ energy solutions.

For years Edge2020 has been working with leading renewable developers, financial institutions and wholesale trading counterparties to deliver consumers renewable backed products that rival standard market contracts. Whilst complex to structure and broker, they offer consumers low-cost, low risk, highly flexible and simplistic energy contracts that cannot be rivalled. We are currently aggregating loads for deals in New South Wales and Queensland, with limited opportunities available to join these transactions in early 2021.

Edge Utilities isn’t resting either, as we dive into 2021 providing both financial and physical renewable energy solutions.  We’re bringing Edge2020 renewable backed deals to smaller businesses, Strata and Body Corporates.  We’re also beyond excited to have partnered with a number of exceptional like-minded companies during 2020 that will allow us to deliver behind-the-meter solar solutions to low and medium rise commercial and residential strata complexes. We’ll be combining these financial and physical products to deliver unprecedented renewable energy solutions to this segment of the market.  And to say we are excited about it, is an understatement!

We want to make our goals for 2021 crystal clear. We want all consumers to be more informed. We want you to genuinely understand the energy deals that you are presented with – the good, the bad, and the downright ugly.  We want you to pursue opportunities that deliver genuine cost savings, not just perceived savings. And in doing so, we want you to help save our planet.

Let us do the hard work for you. Let us bring you the benefits of decades of energy market expertise and strategic relationships, and trading and brokering billions of dollars of energy deals for some of the largest names you can think of.

Let us save you, and our planet.

Reach out using any of the following, and one of our team will be in touch. save@edgeutilities.com.au info@edge2020.com.au 1800 334 336

Alternatively contact our National Sales Manager, Lolita Sillars, directly at lolita@edgeutilities.com.au or our Managing Director, Stacey Vacher, at stacey@edge2020.com.au

To say 2020 has been a colossal year………… is an understatement!

As the year rounds to an end, we would like to take the time to reflect and give thanks. Our sincere thanks to all those who have supported us during this difficult year. Our thoughts and best wishes go out to the individuals, families, and businesses who too have been adversely impacted by the events of 2020. We wish you well as you pivot and rebuild.

The year that was…

Big picture:

  • Trump does, well Trump things – drones, tweets, fails to manage COVID-19 better than anyone, apparently wins an election that he didn’t actually win.
  • China flexes its military muscles in our backyard, their international trade muscles get a workout too.
  • Oh, China also “seemingly” gifts the world COVID-19.
  • A global pandemic follows – 59.7 million cases worldwide, over 1.4 million deaths.
  • Entire industries and businesses are decimated as governments deliver unprecedented incentives.

Close to home:

  • Australian bushfires rage – 46 million acres burn, 1 billion animals perish, 6,000 buildings go, 34 people die.
  • Australia locks down to the threat of COVID-19 – 27.8k cases, over 900 deaths.
  • State and federal governments start spending, leading us into 2021 with a propped-up economy.
  • The RBA drops the cash rate to 0.10%.
  • Energy prices crash – only recently starting to rebound.
  • Many equity and commodity markets crash – most having firmly recovered.
  • Victorians are banished, for months.
  • The AFL grand final is played in QLD – and during the night! Go Tigers!!!
  • The State of Origin is played in three weeks, with the “worst QLD team ever” winning the series.
  • Northern NSW and QLD property prices soar, as they are deemed the safe space to be by cashed up southerners?!……… along with Chris Hemsworth and his mates.
  • Anna has “kept us safe” so she lives to torment Gladys another day.

 Closer to home:

  • Edge Energy Services turns 13 years young and is rebranded Edge2020.
  • Our team trades over $627 million in energy and environmental products.
  • Over 5.7 TWh  approximately $283 million in energy.
  • Over 800k Large-Scale Generation Certificates (LGCs), 1.2m Small-Scale Technology Certificates (STCs), and 33k Energy Savings Certificates (ESCs), totalling over $77 million in environmental certificates.
  • We facilitate over 775 GWh p.a. of renewable power purchase agreements (PPAs), with terms from 5 to 9 years and a total value of over $267 million.
  • We dive deep into the Safeguard Mechanism and deal in several Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs).
  • We continue to structure competitive renewable deals, and we blend and extend as we knowingly fall on our progressive portfolio management sword.
  • We say a temporary goodbye to a few large clients, as they bed down with fixed term fixed (COVID friendly) prices and + 30% savings.
  • We re-contract a number of larger clients, as they continue to support us as a valued business partner and energy management team.
  • Our team expands, then contracts, as we ride the wave of uncertainty.
  • Edge LIVE gets a welcomed facelift and a few new features, including deal capture.
  • Edge Utilities is reborn, officially launching on 1 July 2020. With a tenacious new National Sales Manager and some valued service providers, we deliver a shiny new website edgeutilities.com.au.
  • We dive into the world of strata / body corporate and all things embedded networks – determined to bring value to a “smaller” large consumer.
  • Our journey in this new world uncovers the good, the bad, and unfortunately, the ugly.
  • New products and business opportunities arise, pipelines grow, new trading partners present, new alliances are formed.

On a more personal note:

  • R U OK? Day coincides with me going public in support of kinder client relations with staff – too many lives lost, too many reasons why.
  • We focus on our people, as individuals that instinctively operate within our core values – with integrity, honesty, trust, loyalty, and respect.
  • With increased working from home arrangements, we become even more focused on cultivating a cohesive, supportive, and collaborate team culture.
  • We watch David Attenborough’s witness statement “A Life on Our Planet” and ask ourselves – How can we use our expertise to contribute to the “road to recovery?

2021 looks busy, but oh so sustainably bright!

  • We will shift our focus even more to renewable solutions, products, and markets.
  • Edge Utilities will move to become a fully renewable backed brokerage service.
  • We will soon be offering physical renewable solutions behind the meter and getting more involved in managing Frequency Control Ancillary Services (FCAS) and Virtual Power Plants (VPPs).
  • Edge2020 will continue to play a key role in assisting our clients to achieve their sustainability objectives and proactively manage energy market risks.

With renewable solutions exponentially gaining momentum, we’ve never been more excited about where our market and products are headed!

We hope you take a well-earned and restful Christmas break with loved ones.

Our team look forward to sharing much more detail with you soon and working with you in 2021.

Stay safe and well.

Stacey Vacher
Managing Director, Edge2020, Edge Utilities

Summer Reliability Looking Good

 

On Thursday 27 August 2020, AEMO published its latest Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), this is a projection of electricity supply reliability in the National Electricity Market (NEM) for the next 10 years.

The ESOO is key in identifying gaps in reliability which could lead to the calling of the Retailer Reliability Obligation (RRO) in the coming 5 years. As the ESOO covers the next 10 years, the second 5 years following the RRO looks closer at forecasts for the major transmission upgrades and the continued development of renewable generation.

This years ESOO has looked at the impact of COVID-19 and how this could impact the outlooks uncertainty. As a result of COVID-19 and the change in generation mix, demand changes and the gas market, it has resulted in AEMO not forecasting any unserved energy (USE) for the coming summer.

This years’ ESOO will require an update if the impact of COVID-19 is rapidly reversed due to a faster return to normal than expected. There are a few points of concern in AEMO’s statement including the delays or deferment of planned outages that could affect reliability over summer. ElectraNet have also reduced the summer rating on the Victoria to South Australia Interconnector in both directions following damage incurred during the bushfires of 2020.

A further downside of the reduced flow across the interconnectors is the further delays of the commissioning of renewable projects across the regions resulting in AEMO needing to deploy Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader (RERT) to manage the expected unserved energy. The focus following this summer will be the outlook for reliability in New South Wales when Liddell Power Station retires.

The outlook has improved since the 2019 ESOO with the augmentation of the Queensland to New South Wales Interconnector (QNI) in 2022 to 2023 and increase renewable generation development in the region.

Another interesting observation is that by 2025, the minimum operational demand will occur during the middle of the day not the historic period overnight. As previously discussed, this will lead to the challenges of managing voltage, system strength and inertia.

AEMO is working with aggregators of Distributed Energy Resources (DER) to offer services such as increased PV controllability, load flexibility, storage, and load shifting.

Another urgent action for new projects is the requirement to ensure all new distributed PV installations have suitable disturbance ride-through capabilities and emergency PV shedding capabilities.

AEMO is also working with various stakeholder and industry experts to ensure energy supply is protected from the effects of increasing frequency, extremity and scale of climate induced weather events observed in recent years.

The NEM continues to see the connection of a large quantity of renewable generation with 4,300MW of new capacity forecast to be operational this summer, 1,900MW of this is expected in Victoria.

Due to impacts of COVID-19 and increased renewable generation penetration the reliability of thermal generators could remain at the historic lows observed during 2019-2020 or deteriorate further resulting in volatility.

Changes to your Energy Bill

Changes to your Energy Bill

The effects of COVID-19 have impacted the retail energy space heavily in the last 12 months. This has caused underlying costs of electricity production to decrease significantly. It is expected that costs will remain low for the next 6 to 12 months.

As the Australian economy begins to rebuild itself in the next 6 to 12 months, it is expected that costs will remain low. Following the impact of COVID-19, came price changes with the introduction of the Default Market Offer (DMO) and Victorian Default Offer (VDO).

The DMO outlines the annual maximum total bill amount that an energy company can charge to eligible residential and small business customers in New South Wales, South Australia, and South East Queensland. Energy retailers use the DMO as a reference price, to guide how they structure their charges. However, retailers can set their own supply and usage charges provided they are equal to or less than the DMO price. The VDO is like the DMO, however is applicable to eligible Victorian customers only.

High electricity offers have now reduced significantly. This reduction means end users who choose to switch offers will still save money but not as much as prior years. The difference between the highest standing offer and lowest market offer has decreased by 10%. Although there has been a decrease in the overall offer price, Victoria has actually seen a 10% increase. The average market offer price is still considered to be quite high at 56%. It is unclear whether these changes are because of the DMO and VDO changes, or by increased market competition.

Market Competition

The increased market competition appears to be pushing retail energy prices down after the introduction of 40 new retail brands. In the last 12 months alone, 35 new companies have entered the market. There have also been 8 existing brands who have expanded into other states jurisdictions and are now offering new products. Net retailer margins across the National Electricity Market (NEM) have also dropped due to increased competition. This has seen on average, a decrease of $93 to $66 per customer in the last 2 years.

Products deemed to be essential services such as electricity and gas, have also continued to evolve. To appeal more to customers, retailers are strategically using add-on products as a way of selling the underlying product. Most retailers are doing this by bundling electricity and gas with internet and phone services.

As we can see, there has been a large amount of changes to the market and to customers costs. However, an Energy Consumers Australia (ECA) survey has shown that end users are happier. The results of the survey showed that 57% of customers believed there was value for money at today’s price. Switching rates are a leading indicator of customer dissatisfaction, and recently these have lowered.

 

Written by: Alex Driscoll

 

To learn about what else is changing in the market, read our latest article: https://edgeutilities.com.au/2020-isp/

To stay up-to-date with Edge Utilities, connect with us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/edge-utilities/