AEMO’s MLF assessment reveals solar and wind farms as big losers

Solar Panel

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) recently released its final Marginal Loss Factors (MLFs) assessment, highlighting solar and wind farms as the big losers. The MLFs determine how much energy is lost between the generator and the region reference node in each state, and the changes in the new MLF forecasts were primarily driven by changes in availability due to the closure of Liddell, revised return to service dates for Callide C, revised demand forecasts, and the increased penetration of solar and wind generation into the grid.

The lower MLFs impact the amount of revenue generators can make, and many of the intermittent generators have been impacted by changes to the grid and the closure of thermal generators. The location of renewable generation is becoming increasingly important for the success of a project, with unfavourable MLFs potentially reducing the revenue for generators and impacting the renewable energy available to the market.

While a 3% drop in solar farm generation may not seem significant, some solar farms in the New England region have experienced drops that are greater than this. These changes can affect the success of a project and reduce the renewable energy available to the market, potentially leaving end-users with less renewable energy than they signed up for. The final MLF assessment from AEMO underscores the importance of carefully considering the location of renewable energy projects for successful implementation and revenue generation.

This is a summary article from Edge2020 – read the original article.

The team Edge Utilities are passionate about renewables and sustainability, we are energy brokers with an eye on the planet. We are committed to helping councils and business communities reach their net zero goals through renewable power purchasing agreements (PPAs) and smart portfolio management.
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South Australia “island” and running on renewables

During 2016 a series of storms caused a widespread power outage in South Australia. As a result, a significant amount of work has been undertaken by AEMO to build a more secure grid. In 2017 AEMO released a review of the events which blacked out the state, a significant cause was the extreme weather that resulted in transmission lines being knocked over as well as some windfarms not meeting protection standards.

On November 12th a similar event occurred with a series of storms passing through South Australia causing the tripping of multiple transmission lines. Some transmission towers were damaged and fell over resulting in the South Australian grid being disconnected from the NEM. During this period, South Australia was powered by wind and solar for up to two thirds of its electricity demand with gas providing the difference.

The South Australian network has now been re-synchronised to the NEM and electricity is flowing between South Australia and the other states of the NEM as before.

During events like this AEMO invokes its power to manage system security, however this time it went a step further and restricted roof top solar PV to maintain a secure level of Distributed PV (DPV) generation. AEMO switched off as much rooftop PV installations as possible during the middle of the day, by curtailing the rooftop PV they were able to manage scheduled and semi scheduled generation assets to maintain system security.

System stability is a fine balance of the supply of electricity, the types of generators providing the electricity and the demand of electricity from end users. Part of the solution this time was to encourage end users to consume more electricity enabling a higher level of generation. Prior to the curtailment, South Australia was being supplied by over two thirds of it demand via renewable generation.

While high levels of renewable generation is good to keep electricity costs down, the savings can be eroded by high frequency control costs and the need for more expensive gas fired generation to fill the gap when the sun is not shining and the wind is not blowing.

The state of the market – rising energy costs in today’s budget explained.

Up and up

The budget handed down last night by the Albanese government really did show that there will be “hard days to come”. The treasurer, although acknowledging the international pressures and increases of electricity prices, did nothing to assist with this increasing cost on households and businesses bottom lines.

So why are international pressures a driver for the electricity we use when we turn on our lights?

Well let’s start with a breakdown of what goes into our bill, a large customer will see this split into each section, but smaller businesses and households don’t, they are just rolled into a flat tariff.

There are 4 main components of the energy we buy:

  1. The physical electrons / energy we purchase
  2. The environmental subsidies we all contribute into for a certain number of renewables to be underpinned
  3. The cost of running our electricity grid
  4. The cost of maintaining and running the infrastructure from the huge transmission lines coming across the state to the smaller distribution lines which bring the power to our business or home

The cost of the physical power we use has been on a rollercoaster the last few years. From unprecedented lows during the pandemic, when there was little global demand for our exports and lower demand from our domestic industry to the highs we are now experiencing. But to breakdown this huge shift we have to look abroad.

Let’s first address why we are looking outside of Australia. As a country our coal and gas is largely exported into Southern Asia. Their thirst for energy has increased dramatically over the last few decades and our abundance of natural resources and location made us a great partner to feed their demand. But we are not the only ones satisfying their thirst for energy, and therefore our price of export at is linked to the price other global countries will export at. Setting the ’Global price’. It is just like us going into Coles (China) and seeing Tim Tams for $20 and knowing they are $4 in Woollies (Australia), we would always shop at Woollies. Therefore, to ensure no company misses out the price is always about the same no matter where you shop.

So, if you are an exporter of coal and you know you can sell your Tim Tams to Coles for $20, why would you supply our domestic market (Woollies) at $4/pack. You wouldn’t, you would pile all the coal (Tim Tams) you could on a ship and send it away as quick as you can, and that is why we are linked to the international market. As we need the Tim Tams (or Coal) to ensure our domestic electricity demand is met. But, to do this, we also have to pay the $20/packet to make sure we can have enough here in Australia.

This international price has skyrocketed recently. Not only has demand come back from all the lockdowns caused by COVID19, but the Ukraine crisis has thrown global energy into a tailspin. Europe, who used to be nicely fed their Oil and Gas from Russia now cannot get their supply, as such they are telling everyone they will buy the Tim Tams for $25 even $30 per packet. So again, the circle of, if I can sell to them for $30 why would I sell to Woollies for the now $20 price re starts until Woollies (Australia) is now paying $30 per packet.

But as the cost of the Tim Tams go up we start thinking maybe I will have a Kingston (Gas) instead, it is easier to buy and no one has bought them all for the next 18 months at $30/pack. So, as we all start leaving behind the expensive Coal (Tim Tams) because they have all being bought and pre-ordered for 18 months and move to Gas (Kingston’s). In doing this, that price also increases, and so the spiral re-starts.

Now let’s add some spice. The delivery truck bringing those Tim Tams and Kingston’s to the shops (Power Stations) are flooded in, or the truck unloads but they all get soggy in the rain. Now they can’t be eaten (burned to make electricity). So, what happens? What was already a high price, gets higher. So, with a third La Nina forecast for Australia and flooding already affecting many regions, these deliveries are either delayed or just don’t make it. Meaning an already tight market becomes more sparce and therefore more expensive.

Now the cynical among us would say that the generators are taking advantage of this, and the market is pushing the price higher and higher because they have bought their Kingston’s and Tim Tams at $20/packet and could sell them to us at that price, but instead they know they could now charge $30 per packet so why not, they bank the $10 per packet and no one is wiser. But that is for the ACCC, and you would hope they are watching such behaviour with eagle eyes!

These are a handful of the drivers affecting our price at the moment, there are currently 7 to 10 of them all similar in their affect, that any fluctuation anywhere in the world is having huge repercussions to us at home.

But they aren’t the only changes. With huge pushes towards renewable energy and the certificates produced by them, this market is also increasing as the number of renewables is not increasing as quickly as the amount required. Therefore, again the costs go up and this is passed onto the end users in their bills. Now factor in this renewable energy is going to cost more not just now but in the future, as the cost of making the solar panels increases as the electricity price increases. Therefore, the cost of any of this de-carbonisation has just increased in price too.

But that isn’t the end of the story, finally, let’s consider the cost of bringing the power from the power station to our meter. This is a huge amount of infrastructure which is either older requiring it to be maintained or new requiring funding. Both costs are underpinned by debt. The higher the lending rate is, the higher this debt becomes and therefore the more we are charged to use their system. Further with the huge roll out in renewables this will require significant upgrades to the system as the power will be coming from less conventional areas to the load centres (think towns / cities). With the interest rates rising the cost of this debt or borrowing goes up, just like a mortgage on a house. Again, this only means one thing. An increase in pass through costs to our bills. With huge renewable ambitions and nowhere near enough funding passed down in this budget, that can only result in increases to our bills from our retailers.

Unfortunately, this means that without significant easing of many of these fundamentals, there is no relief in sight. Maybe for once the sensational headline of 35% increases in bills may turn out to hold some truth.

Edge Utilities can help:

If you feel you need to take more control of your company’s business energy spend, please reach out to discuss joining our Edge Utilities Power Portfolio (EUPP) where we use the power of bulk purchasing to help Australian businesses of all sizes save on their energy bills. Read more: https://edgeutilities.com.au/edge-utilities-power-portfolio/ or call us on: 1800 334 336 to discuss.  

 

NEW RENEWABLES ON THE HORIZON

The next phase in the development of the renewable industry may just be about to occur. The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) have been studying locations for new renewable developments. The majority of the market has been focusing on Renewable Energy Zones (REZ) on land but the solution maybe further off ashore. AEMO have located four offshore wind zones off the coast of NSW, Victoria, and Tasmania. The potential opportunities could add up to 40GW into the grid. To keep transmission costs down, AEMO have found locations close to land where significant ports are established that will allow the renewable output for the wind farms to be used at renewable hydrogen export hubs.

This year, AEMO updated its inputs into the Integrated System Plan and one of the significant changes from previous years is the volume of offshore wind availability. The 40GW identified is likely to be constructed over the next 20 years. At this stage the only offshore wind farm is the Star of the South wind farm located off the coast of Victoria and is likely to be 2,200MW. The Start of the South project is likely to connect into the grid via the Latrobe Valley and will feed in electricity as the coal fired generation in that region retires.

As the Hydrogen market also grows, offshore wind developers will focus on sites adjacent to the proposed hydrogen export facilities around Newcastle.

Offshore wind developers are concerned the legislation hurdles may stall the industry, so they are looking for support from governments to allow the industry to grow.

Oceanex Energy is looking to develop and construct up to 4 offshore windfarms off the coast of NSW with output likely to be over 7,000MW.

Oceanex Energy CEO Andy Evans says the clarity over the legislation is important given that project developers would likely need to spend up to $200 million to get a project to financial close.

He said it was an industry that would be likely dominated by major energy players – such as RWE, Iberdrola, Macquarie, and Equinox, along with big oil companies such as Shell and BP that are also expanding into offshore wind.

ORIGIN STILL IN THE RED

More bad news for electricity retailers with Origin Energy announcing an impairment of $1.6B after further writing down the value of its generation assets and reducing the value of its renewable energy contracts.

In a statement, Origin said the write downs were a result of falling wholesale prices, mostly driven by the influx of new wind and solar projects. High gas prices also reduced the returns from their fleet of gas-powered generation.

Origin owns the largest coal fired generation unit in the NEM, so the market pressures weighed heavily on the balance sheet. Origins large exposure to the non-renewable segment of the market through its Eraring coal fired power station which resulted in a $583M post-tax impairment. This comes because of Origin’s assumption of a lower outlook for wholesale electricity prices driven by new supply expected to come online, including both renewable and dispatchable capacity, impacting the valuation of the generation fleet, particularly Eraring Power Station.

Eraring is expected to be the cause of much of the impairment, but the gas-powered generation (GPG) units did not fair much better. The GPG were affected due to the increased cost of gas and the decrease in the spot and contract electricity market price.

Strategically Origin has chosen to source renewable energy through PPA rather than build physical generation so are not exposed to the physical renewable market. Origin was an early mover in the renewable PPA space so the PPA’s on their books are very expensive compared to what the market offers are today. This has resulted in Origin writing down some of the value of these existing PPAs.

Origin says it will write down $995M in value of goodwill for these renewable PPA’s and the gas contracts that are out of the money. Origin expects the spot market price to be up to $20/MWh below where they previously anticipated the price to be.

Origin expect their FY2022 profits to be lower than expected at $450- 600M which will again be largely supported by the LNG export part of the business.

On a positive front, Origin expects the market to recover in FY2023 where earnings are expected to increase by $150-250M on the back of a material rebound in energy market earnings.

TAX ON ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EVs)

The Victorian government has introduced a Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) Subsidy. The subsidy is designed to reduce the cost of purchasing an ZEV. ZEV’s, which are more commonly known as Electric Vehicles (EVs) are increasing in popularity and the Victorian government would like to see Victorians choosing to buy an EV sooner. Buyers of electric and hydrogen vehicles will be subsidised with the goal of achieving half of all new cars sold to be zero-emission by 2030.

The subsidy is part of the Victorian Government’s Zero Emissions Vehicle Roadmap, a $100 million plan to fast track the transition to ZEVs. To achieve the 50% ZEV target, $46M of funding has been allocated to support the purchase of 20,000 ZEVs. The first round includes 4000 subsidies of $3,000 to reduce the up-front cost of an EV. Further rounds will subsidise a total of 20,000 EVs over the next three years.

Victorian residents and businesses can apply for the first round of the subsidy, with electric or hydrogen vehicle purchases up to $68,740 before on-road costs eligible for the subsidy. More expensive EVs, hybrids, zero-emission motorcycles or heavy vehicles are not eligible at this stage.

The Victorian government has also committed to buying $10M worth of zero-emissions cars over the next three years, this will equate to about 400 vehicles. $19M of funding has been allocated to building 50 EV charging station throughout Victoria.

Previously, the Victorian Government released plans to tax EV drivers 2.5 cents per kilometre driven each year to counteract the expected loss from fuel excises.

An average driver covers 15,000km each year so, the extra 2.5/Km would cost EV drivers an extra $375 each year on top of registration. These changes will take effect from July 2021.

Australia’s first net zero emissions, hydrogen/gas power plant gets the green light.

EnergyAustralia has announced that the expansion of its existing Tallawarra power station in the Illawarra region is proceeding, following an agreement reached with the Government of New South Wales.

Tallawarra B will be Australia’s first net zero emissions hydrogen and gas capable power plant, with direct carbon emissions from the project offset over its operational life. EnergyAustralia will offer to buy 200,000kg of green hydrogen per year from 2025.

The 300+ megawatt power station will be powering New South Wales homes and businesses in time for summer, following Liddell power station’s retirement.

Not only will the new power station deliver reliable power to around 150,000 homes but it will also contribute $300 million to the economy and create 250 well-paid jobs during construction.

“EnergyAustralia has a goal of being carbon neutral by 2050. Today we provide further evidence of another energy project that can help keep the lights on for customers with reliable, affordable, and cleaner energy,” Managing Director Catherine Tanna said.

STANWELL CEO RESIGNS

Just days after the shock announcement that Brett Redman was leaving his role as CEO of AGL, Richard Van Breda, CEO of Stanwell has also resigned.

Richard has been the CEO of Stanwell since 2012 and has led the company through many challenges including potential asset sales, the retirement of Collinsville and Swanbank B power stations, droughts, a drop in the spot and contract prices and COVID-19.

Earlier in the week Richard announced that Stanwell had long term plans to transition from a largely coal fired generator to a renewable energy and storage business.

He said, “We are taking early steps to bring our people, communities, unions and governments together to put plans in place.”  Mr Van Breda also said  “Over the coming years, Stanwell will respond to the renewable energy needs of our large commercial and industrial customers through the introduction of new low or zero emission generation technologies”.

Mr Van Breda will continue full time in the CEO role until May 28 when an Acting CEO will take over and the process to recruit a permanent replacement will commence.